On the surface, it may seem that the key to Saturday's Packers vs. 49ers contest is whether or not the Niners third-ranked defense (yards allowed) can slow the Packers and their offense, which finished fifth in the league in scoring.
That could be the case, certainly.
Or, the key to the game could be how the 49ers fourth-ranked rushing offense will fare against Green Bay's seventeenth-ranked rushing defense, and whether or not Colin Kaepernick can rise to the occasion in his first career playoff start.
Kaepernick supplanted Alex Smith at quarterback after Smith went down with an injury in November. His ability to make plays with his legs is what kept him in the lineup even after Smith was healthy enough to return, and added another dimension to what had been a team that was not built to win up-tempo offensive games.
A look at advanced stats from Football Outsiders shows that not much separates the two teams. Both were in the top five in the league in offensive efficiency (GB third, 19.5%, SF fifth, 17.0%), top ten in defensive efficiency (GB eighth, -7.3%, SF second, -14.3%) and slightly below average in terms of special teams play (GB eighteenth, -0.2%, SF twentieth, -1.5%).
The Niners stand to get a big boost on defense with the return of Justin Smith to their defensive line after missing the final two regular season games with a partially torn triceps.
According to ESPN, the Niners defense averaged one sack per 14.8 dropbacks with Smith on the field this year, and one every 26.8 dropbacks with him out of the lineup. Factor in that Aaron Rodgers was sacked a league-high 51 times this season, and you have a matchup to keep your eye on Saturday night.
That could be the case, certainly.
Or, the key to the game could be how the 49ers fourth-ranked rushing offense will fare against Green Bay's seventeenth-ranked rushing defense, and whether or not Colin Kaepernick can rise to the occasion in his first career playoff start.
Kaepernick supplanted Alex Smith at quarterback after Smith went down with an injury in November. His ability to make plays with his legs is what kept him in the lineup even after Smith was healthy enough to return, and added another dimension to what had been a team that was not built to win up-tempo offensive games.
A look at advanced stats from Football Outsiders shows that not much separates the two teams. Both were in the top five in the league in offensive efficiency (GB third, 19.5%, SF fifth, 17.0%), top ten in defensive efficiency (GB eighth, -7.3%, SF second, -14.3%) and slightly below average in terms of special teams play (GB eighteenth, -0.2%, SF twentieth, -1.5%).
The Niners stand to get a big boost on defense with the return of Justin Smith to their defensive line after missing the final two regular season games with a partially torn triceps.
According to ESPN, the Niners defense averaged one sack per 14.8 dropbacks with Smith on the field this year, and one every 26.8 dropbacks with him out of the lineup. Factor in that Aaron Rodgers was sacked a league-high 51 times this season, and you have a matchup to keep your eye on Saturday night.
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